FLORIDA POWER 25: St. Thomas Aquinas Holds No. 1 as Columbus, Buchholz and Hawthorne Surge – FloridaHSFootball.com

The Florida Power 25 has a familiar team at No. 1, but almost everything underneath St. Thomas Aquinas is changing.

The Raiders remain atop the statewide rankings with a 100.49 FPRI rating, while IMG Academy National stays No. 2 and West Boca Raton holds No. 3. Columbus makes the biggest move near the top, climbing four positions to No. 4 and becoming the new No. 1 team in Class 6A. Raines remains No. 5.

Then the movement accelerates.

Buchholz jumps six positions to No. 8. Hawthorne makes one of the largest moves anywhere in the Power 25, soaring 13 spots to No. 9 after beating Miami Northwestern. Armwood climbs five positions to No. 11, Columbia rises nine to No. 14, Tampa Bay Tech jumps eight to No. 16, Carrollwood Day climbs seven to No. 19, and DeLand makes an 11-position move into the statewide Top 20.

At the other end, Miami Northwestern tumbles 12 places to No. 25 after its loss to Hawthorne, while Cardinal Mooney, St. Augustine and several others slide as the statewide picture continues absorbing more 2026 results.

FLORIDA POWER 25 — SEP. 13

FPRI FORECASTING POSTS ITS BEST WEEK YET

The rankings come after the strongest forecasting week of the season for the Enhanced Florida Power Rankings Index.

FPRI finished Week 4 at 196-59 (.769) across 255 graded games.

The weekly progression continues moving upward:

Week 0 — 23-13 (.639)
Week 1 — 185-99-1 (.651)
Week 2 — 188-91 (.674)
Week 3 — 178-80 (.690)
Week 4 — 196-59 (.769)

Through Week 4, FPRI stands at 770-342-1, a .692 winning percentage on decided games.

The Week 4 confidence bands were also encouraging. Teams favored at 80% or higher went 161-27 (.856), 90%+ favorites finished 126-19 (.869), and 95%+ favorites went 106-11 (.906). All 12 teams projected at 100% won.

The curve was not perfectly monotonic at every confidence threshold, but the overall relationship remained clear: stronger FPRI confidence generally corresponded with stronger forecasting accuracy.

The early results following the Week 3 methodology refinements have been encouraging, but four weeks remain far too small a sample to make sweeping conclusions. More current-season evidence will continue replacing preseason information as the season progresses.

ST. THOMAS AQUINAS REMAINS THE STATEWIDE STANDARD

St. Thomas Aquinas remains No. 1 with a 100.49 FPRI rating and a 24.1 SOS, one of the strongest schedule profiles anywhere in the state.

The Raiders have remained at the top while facing a schedule that continues providing substantial résumé support.

That combination matters more with each passing week.

As preseason influence fades, teams with both strong results and strong opponent profiles become increasingly difficult to dislodge.

IMG Academy National remains directly behind at No. 2 with a 98.85 rating, while West Boca Raton holds No. 3 at 96.48.

The top three remain unchanged.

The first major shakeup comes immediately after them.

COLUMBUS SURGES TO NO. 4

Columbus climbs four statewide positions from No. 8 to No. 4 and now carries a 92.32 FPRI rating with a 26.6 SOS.

That is one of the strongest schedule figures among the entire Power 25.

Columbus has now accumulated enough high-value evidence to move ahead of several programs that entered the season with stronger baselines.

The Explorers also rise one position within Class 6A and take over the No. 1 classification ranking.

That is exactly the kind of movement the model should begin producing as more games are completed.

The preseason baseline still exists in the background, but increasingly it is the current-season résumé that is determining the order.

RAINES HOLDS NO. 5

Raines remains No. 5 with a 90.78 rating.

The Vikings continue to lead Class 3A and Northeast Florida.

Their -5.1 SOS remains the biggest restraint compared with several teams immediately around them, but Raines has continued stacking convincing results and retains substantial separation from most of the classification field.

Week 5 brings another direct Northeast Florida test against Mandarin.

CARDINAL NEWMAN AND VENICE SLIP BUT REMAIN ELITE

Cardinal Newman falls two positions to No. 6 with an 88.73 rating and an 18.4 SOS.

Venice slips one position to No. 7 at 88.62.

Neither move represents a collapse.

Both remain among the highest-rated teams in Florida, and both sit comfortably inside their respective classification races.

The distinction is increasingly relative.

Columbus generated enough movement to pass them, while teams farther down the rankings produced major Week 4 results of their own.

BUCHHOLZ JUMPS INTO THE TOP 10

Buchholz climbs six statewide positions from No. 14 to No. 8 after shutting out West Port 21-0.

The Bobcats now carry an 85.05 rating and remain No. 1 in North Central Florida.

Buchholz’s -6.0 SOS is not especially strong, which makes Week 5 particularly important.

The Bobcats travel to Jesuit, giving them another opportunity to add meaningful opponent value while defending their new statewide position.

HAWTHORNE MAKES ONE OF THE BIGGEST MOVES OF THE WEEK

Hawthorne rockets 13 positions from No. 22 to No. 9 after defeating Miami Northwestern 16-12.

The Hornets now carry an 84.51 rating and remain No. 1 in Class 1A.

This is one of the clearest examples of the model responding to a high-value current-season result.

Miami Northwestern entered Week 4 among the highest-rated teams in Florida.

Hawthorne beat the Bulls.

That result immediately gave FPRI new evidence about Hawthorne’s strength relative to the statewide field.

The result also demonstrates why a team can make a massive jump without needing several weeks of gradual movement.

A strong result against a highly rated opponent provides far more information than another routine victory against a lower-rated team.

CHAMINADE-MADONNA ROUNDS OUT THE TOP 10

Chaminade-Madonna remains No. 10 with an 84.46 rating.

The Lions remain firmly in the upper tier despite having already faced one of the more demanding schedules among Florida’s top programs.

They now sit only 0.05 points behind Hawthorne and 0.59 behind Buchholz.

That means Nos. 8 through 10 are essentially one tightly packed group.

ARMWOOD CLIMBS TO NO. 11

Armwood jumps five positions to No. 11 after shutting out Spoto 51-0.

The Hawks now carry an 83.70 rating and an 18.5 SOS.

The 51-point margin is treated as 35 under the FPRI margin cap, so the final 16 points do not add additional rating value.

Armwood also moves into the No. 1 position in the Tampa Bay rankings.

Only 0.24 points separate Armwood from Cardinal Mooney at No. 12.

CARDINAL MOONEY SLIPS TO NO. 12

Cardinal Mooney falls five positions to No. 12 and carries an 83.61 rating.

The Cougars remain No. 2 in Class 3A behind Raines and continue to sit among the strongest programs in Southwest Florida.

Their 1.6 SOS provides less support than several nearby teams, making future high-quality opponents increasingly important as more of the rankings become driven by 2026 results.

Cardinal Mooney is open in Week 5.

LAKELAND REMAINS IN THE TOP 15 AFTER ROUTING OSCEOLA

Lakeland slips one spot to No. 13 despite one of Week 4’s strongest results, a 40-6 victory over Osceola.

The Dreadnaughts carry an 83.46 rating.

This is another important reminder that a ranking drop does not automatically mean a team performed poorly.

Lakeland delivered a major result.

Armwood and Columbia simply produced enough relative movement to push past.

Week 5 now gives Lakeland one of the biggest games on the statewide schedule when American Heritage comes to Bryant Stadium.

COLUMBIA SURGES NINE POSITIONS

Columbia jumps from No. 23 to No. 14 after shutting out Ribault 49-0.

The Tigers carry an 83.34 rating with a 14.0 SOS and move into the No. 1 position in Class 4A.

The 49-point final margin is capped at 35 for rating purposes.

Still, Columbia’s rise is about more than one lopsided victory.

The Tigers have continued building a résumé that is gaining value as their opponents accumulate results of their own.

Columbia now sits only 0.12 points behind Lakeland.

ST. AUGUSTINE SLIPS TO NO. 15

St. Augustine falls six positions to No. 15 with an 82.98 rating.

The Yellow Jackets remain No. 2 in Northeast Florida and No. 2 in Class 4A behind Columbia.

Their -3.9 SOS currently provides less support than Columbia’s 14.0, which helps explain some of the separation developing between the two.

Week 5 brings Evans to H.L. “Foots” Brumley Stadium.

TAMPA BAY TECH CLIMBS TO NO. 16

Tampa Bay Tech rises eight statewide positions after shutting out Plant 48-0.

The Titans carry an 82.97 rating with a 12.6 SOS.

Only 0.01 points separate Tampa Bay Tech and St. Augustine.

That is one of several places inside the Power 25 where a single result can easily reverse the order.

Tampa Bay Tech gets Gaither in Week 5.

VERO BEACH AND AMERICAN HERITAGE REMAIN SIDE BY SIDE

Vero Beach moves one position higher to No. 17 with an 82.26 rating and an 18.3 SOS.

American Heritage slips one position to No. 18 with an 82.14 rating and a powerful 24.8 SOS.

Only 0.12 points separate the two.

American Heritage’s schedule remains one of the strongest in the rankings, which keeps the Patriots highly supported even when individual results create some volatility.

Week 5 gives American Heritage another massive opportunity against Lakeland.

CARROLLWOOD DAY CLIMBS INTO THE TOP 20

Carrollwood Day rises seven positions to No. 19 with an 81.25 rating.

The Patriots remain No. 2 in Class 1A behind Hawthorne and No. 4 in the Tampa Bay rankings.

Their -1.0 SOS still leaves room for the profile to strengthen, but Carrollwood Day has continued generating enough current-season value to move higher.

DELAND CRASHES INTO THE TOP 20

DeLand makes one of the biggest Power 25 jumps, climbing 11 statewide positions to No. 20 after shutting out Lake Mary 33-0.

The Bulldogs now carry an 80.99 rating with a 22.1 SOS.

This was one of the defining Week 4 results anywhere in Florida.

Lake Mary entered as one of Central Florida’s highest-rated teams.

DeLand did not merely beat the Rams.

The Bulldogs shut them out.

That result provides powerful new information about both teams and explains why DeLand moved so aggressively.

DeLand also takes over No. 1 in Central Florida.

CLEARWATER CENTRAL CATHOLIC CLIMBS TO NO. 21

Clearwater Central Catholic rises eight positions to No. 21 with an 80.70 rating and a 17.8 SOS.

The Marauders remain No. 3 in Class 2A behind Cardinal Newman and Chaminade-Madonna.

Only 0.29 points separate CCC from DeLand.

That keeps Clearwater Central Catholic well positioned to continue climbing if the résumé keeps strengthening.

JONES, BOLLES AND WEST ORANGE REMAIN IN THE POWER 25

Jones slips one position to No. 22 with an 80.36 rating.

Bolles rises two positions to No. 23 with an 80.19 rating and a strong 15.6 SOS.

West Orange climbs four spots to No. 24 with a 79.35 rating.

West Orange survived Ocoee 13-12 in Week 4, another reminder that close wins against improving opponents can matter differently than dominant results over weaker schedules.

Only 1.01 points separate Jones at No. 22 from West Orange at No. 24.

MIAMI NORTHWESTERN FALLS TO NO. 25

Miami Northwestern suffers the biggest decline inside the Power 25.

The Bulls fall 12 positions from No. 13 to No. 25 after losing 16-12 to Hawthorne.

Northwestern now carries a 78.89 rating.

The -16.6 SOS also provides less support than many teams elsewhere in the rankings.

The fall is substantial, but Northwestern remains inside the Power 25 because the complete résumé still provides enough value to keep the Bulls ahead of the teams immediately outside.

That position is no longer secure.

THE CHASE JUST OUTSIDE THE POWER 25

The First Academy sits No. 26 at 78.21, only 0.68 points behind Miami Northwestern.

Atlantic (Delray Beach) is No. 27 at 77.07.

Lake Wales is No. 28 at 76.73.

Lake Nona makes one of the biggest statewide jumps anywhere in Florida, soaring 80 positions to No. 29 with a 76.37 rating after beating Edgewater 24-3.

Seminole rounds out the first five outside the Power 25 at No. 30 with a 76.09 rating.

Lake Mary is only another 0.01 behind Seminole at No. 31.

That means the cutoff remains extremely volatile.

WEEK 5 SPOTLIGHT: AMERICAN HERITAGE AT LAKELAND

American Heritage at Lakeland — Friday, 7:30 p.m., Bryant Stadium

This is one of the biggest Week 5 games anywhere in Florida.

Lakeland enters No. 13 statewide with an 83.46 rating.

American Heritage enters No. 18 at 82.14.

Only 1.32 points separate them.

Lakeland is coming off its 40-6 victory over Osceola.

American Heritage carries one of the strongest SOS figures in the state at 24.8.

A direct result between two teams this closely rated should provide valuable information for the next statewide rankings.

Several other Power 25 games deserve close attention.

St. Thomas Aquinas at Archbishop McCarthy — Friday, 7 p.m., Maverick Stadium

The statewide No. 1 takes its 100.49 rating into another South Florida matchup.

IMG Academy National at The First Academy — Friday, 7 p.m., Warden Stadium

No. 2 IMG Academy National faces the first team outside the Power 25.

The First Academy sits No. 26, giving this matchup enormous potential value on both sides.

St. John’s College (D.C.) at West Boca Raton — Friday, 6:30 p.m., venue TBA

No. 3 West Boca Raton gets an out-of-state opponent while trying to maintain its place directly behind the statewide top two.

Columbus at South Dade — Friday, 7:30 p.m., Orange Bowl Field at Harris Stadium

New No. 4 Columbus puts its major rise back on the field against another South Florida opponent.

Mandarin at Raines — Friday, 6:30 p.m., Earl S. Kitchings Stadium

Raines gets a direct test against a Mandarin team ranked No. 33 statewide.

Jensen Beach at Cardinal Newman — Friday, 7 p.m., Sam Budnyk Stadium

Cardinal Newman looks to defend its No. 6 statewide position.

Cape Coral at Venice — Friday, 7:30 p.m., Powell-Davis Stadium

Venice returns home while trying to maintain its place inside the statewide Top 10.

Buchholz at Jesuit — Friday, 7:30 p.m., Alumni Field at Corral Memorial Stadium

Buchholz gets an important road opportunity immediately after climbing to No. 8.

Hawthorne at Bayshore — Friday, 7 p.m., Balvanz Stadium

Hawthorne puts its massive Week 4 rise back on the field after beating Miami Northwestern.

Chaminade-Madonna at Cardinal Gibbons — Friday, 7 p.m., Dr. Bud Tight Field

Chaminade-Madonna gets another significant South Florida matchup while sitting only 0.05 points behind Hawthorne.

Sumner at Armwood — Friday, 7:30 p.m., Lyle Flagg Field

Armwood faces a Sumner team sitting No. 42 statewide with a 72.59 rating and a 15.4 SOS.

Cardinal Mooney — BYE

Columbia at Trinity Christian — Friday, 7 p.m., Conquerors Stadium

Columbia gets another useful opponent after surging into the statewide Top 15.

Evans at St. Augustine — Friday, 7 p.m., H.L. “Foots” Brumley Stadium

St. Augustine tries to stabilize after falling six statewide positions.

Gaither at Tampa Bay Tech — Friday, 7:30 p.m., Titan Stadium

Tampa Bay Tech gets another regional opponent after its eight-position statewide climb.

Spanish River at Vero Beach — Friday, 7 p.m., Citrus Bowl at Billy Livings Field

Vero Beach looks to continue building a résumé supported by an 18.3 SOS.

Chamberlain at Carrollwood Day — Friday, 7:30 p.m., Wagner Athletic Complex

Carrollwood Day puts its new statewide Top 20 position on the line.

Deltona at DeLand — Friday, 7 p.m., Spec Martin Memorial Stadium

New No. 20 DeLand gets its first game after the 33-0 statement against Lake Mary.

Clearwater Central Catholic at St. Petersburg Catholic — Friday, 7 p.m., Joe Paul Stadium

CCC tries to continue one of the biggest climbs near the bottom half of the Power 25.

Edgewater at Jones — Friday, 7 p.m., Booker T. Reddick Field

Jones gets a direct Central Florida matchup against an Edgewater team trying to recover from its loss to Lake Nona.

Oakleaf at Bolles — Friday, 7 p.m., Skinner-Barco Stadium

Bolles gets a strong Northeast Florida test against an Oakleaf team sitting No. 44 statewide.

West Orange at Lake Mary — Friday, 7 p.m., Doug Peters Field at Don T. Reynolds Stadium

West Orange gets one of the most interesting statewide measuring sticks of Week 5 against a Lake Mary team that has fallen all the way to No. 31.

North Miami at Miami Northwestern — Thursday, 7 p.m., Nathaniel Traz Powell Stadium

Miami Northwestern gets the first opportunity to respond after falling 12 places following its loss to Hawthorne.

THE POWER 25 IS BECOMING MORE RESPONSIVE

Four weeks into the regular season, the shape of the Florida Power 25 is changing.

St. Thomas Aquinas, IMG Academy National and West Boca Raton remain stable at the top.

Everything underneath them is increasingly dynamic.

Columbus climbs four spots.

Buchholz rises six.

Hawthorne jumps 13.

Armwood moves five.

Columbia climbs nine.

Tampa Bay Tech rises eight.

Carrollwood Day moves seven.

DeLand jumps 11.

At the same time, Miami Northwestern falls 12, Cardinal Mooney drops five and St. Augustine falls six.

That volatility is not simply noise.

It reflects a model with considerably more 2026 evidence than it had three weeks ago.

Head-to-head results matter more strongly than before, but one result still does not automatically replace the entire body of work. Opponent performance continues changing the value of previous games, and schedule strength is becoming increasingly meaningful as more teams reach four completed contests.

The result is a statewide ranking that should continue becoming more stable while still responding when teams produce major results.

Week 5 gives the model another excellent set of tests.

American Heritage plays Lakeland.

IMG Academy National faces The First Academy.

Buchholz travels to Jesuit.

Chaminade-Madonna plays Cardinal Gibbons.

West Orange meets Lake Mary.

Armwood faces Sumner.

And Miami Northwestern gets its first chance to answer the Hawthorne loss.

The rankings are beginning to mature.

But the Florida Power 25 is nowhere close to settled.

EXPLORE THE COMPLETE FLORIDA POWER RANKINGS INDEX

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As more games are played, current performance and opponent strength will continue replacing preseason information within the ratings.

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