NFL experts’ Week 4 takeaways: Are Eagles, Jaguars and Cowboys contenders or pretenders?

Each Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.

What’s real and what’s fake in the NFL? It’s still relatively early, but through four games some surprise teams are starting to emerge while others that were supposed to be rolling are struggling.

The NFC East standings are a great illustration of the turbulent and unexpected start to this season. The New York Giants (3-1) are alone in first place while the Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) and Dallas Cowboys (2-2) have had up-and-down starts.

In the AFC, the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) are off to a strong start and look like the team that surged to a division title last season.

NFL writers Jeff Howe, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on Sunday’s games and identify the contenders and pretenders so far.

The Eagles blew a winnable game at home against the Los Angeles Rams by going scoreless in the second half. Are the Eagles pretenders?

Howe: The Eagles look how they often look early in the season — and on other occasions, for the entirety of the season — as they figure out the best recipe to win games. It’s rarely pretty. They’re capable of playing both up and down to their competition, and it seems like each game ages the average Philly fan about a decade. Right now, I tend to think the Eagles are a tier below being a contender, but it’s too early to assume they won’t get hot. It’s been a recipe before.

Nguyen: I didn’t put the Eagles in the contender category before the season because there were too many question marks around their offense and it’s been worse than I thought it would be. I thought they could be a playoff team if their defense was dominant.They’ve been fine but they aren’t the top 3 unit that I thought they would be and they could be dealing with some important injuries after Sunday. They can’t run the ball with efficiency. With Saquon Barkley, they could at least hit explosives here or there, but he left the game early with a hamstring injury. Quarterback Jalen Hurts was without wide receiver DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert on Sunday, but he doesn’t look comfortable in this offense. Maybe that can improve later in the season as they get healthier, but he’s not going to become a quarterback that he just never was. And that’s not to say Hurts has never been good. He’s a Super Bowl winning quarterback, but as his rushing ability becomes less of a threat, he has to evolve and we haven’t seen enough growth yet. There are a lot of issues with this Eagles team and injuries could completely derail things.

Pompei: ​​To call them pretenders would be an overreach, but to call them the team that they were supposed to be also would be an overreach. That isn’t to say they still can’t become the team they were supposed to be. There is no denying they haven’t been in the kind of groove that they wanted to be in, however. Nobody wants to hear about injuries, but the Eagles were without four of their best offensive players for most of the game, as Lane Johnson, Goedert and Smith were inactive, and Barkley had two carries before leaving the game. A healthier Eagles team would be a considerably better team. It’s a long season, and nobody should write off Philadelphia with a 2-2 record.

The Cowboys pulled out a late win over the Houston Texans with heroics from CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott. Are the Cowboys contenders even with that shaky defense?

Howe: Given the last 30 years, I’d be reluctant to call the Cowboys contenders after splitting their first four games. Plus, as much as I still want to believe the Texans are way better than their record indicates, it’s easy to poke holes in the Cowboys’ two victories — beating the Commanders when Jayden Daniels went down at halftime and the winless Texans. The Cowboys are capable of hanging with anyone because of their explosive offense, but their defense needs to prove a whole lot more to believe they’re capable of a playoff run.

Nguyen: The Texans offense hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype but they are still a talented unit with game-wreckers. Prescott carved them up. This is the best offense in football. The defense is terrible, but they have potential to improve, especially with the Joey Porter Jr. trade. Defensive coordinator Christian Parker is from the Vic Fangio tree and typically defenses in that system get better as the season progresses. The Cowboys are also learning on several young players to play key roles. Caleb Downs and those young players will keep getting better. I want to see some defensive improvement before saying that they are a contender though.

Pompei: Their defense should improve. On paper, it’s a pretty solid unit, but on the field the Cowboys defense hasn’t always played that way. Getting back DeMarvion Overshown will help, Downs could ascend, and it will be a surprise if the addition of Porter Jr. doesn’t have an impact. The other factor with their defense is they have a 34-year-old defensive coordinator who is in his role for the first time. Parker has the potential to game plan better and call better plays as the season goes on. And the very impressive Dallas offense can cover up for some defensive shortcomings. They are better than their record says they are, and every bit a contender.

The Jaguars picked up another impressive win with a 22-17 road victory against the Cincinnati Bengals. Should they be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender?

Howe: Absolutely. The Jaguars are one of a select handful of teams that should feel good about their opening month, both in performance and DNA. Head coach Liam Coen enforced a strong point to the team in training camp about managing inevitable bouts of adversity, whether it’s in a game or a longer stretch of the season, and the Jags have already shown their resilience. They’ve played one bad half of football this season — succumbing to a Broncos second-half surge in Denver — but responded by thoroughly dismantling the Patriots and snagging an impressive victory in Cincinnati against a Bengals team that’s had their number. The Jags’ Week 1 blowout of the Browns even looks a whole lot more impressive.

Nguyen: The Jaguars are the most complete team in the league. They have one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL, they can run the ball when they need to, and their defense is elite (third best points allowed per drive). Their offense wasn’t at their best Sunday but their defense stepped up and took advantage of a Bengals offense without Ja’Marr Chase. Also, they have Cam Little, who is the record holder for longest field goal. They can win with so many different game scripts. Today, they shot themselves in the foot over and over again with 13 penalties for 125 yards, but they got the job done. Travis Hunter looked fantastic at corner Sunday — maybe his best game yet. If Hunter develops into the corner that most draftniks thought he couldn’t be, this team is as complete as any in the league. Why shouldn’t they be considered contenders?

Pompei: Super Bowl contenders don’t emerge in October. They emerge in December. But from all the evidence on the table after one month of play, the Jaguars belong in the upper tier of NFL teams. Their only loss was to the Denver Broncos, another team that is in the same tier. Their formula of winning — efficient quarterback play supported by a steady run game, and a defense that gets the ball back — is the kind of formula that gets teams to the Super Bowl. But for the Jaguars to remain in the tier, they will need to tighten up their passing defense, which surrendered 428 yards to Joe Burrow on Sunday and is giving up an average of 284 yards per game. And they aren’t going to get to the Super Bowl if they keep committing 13 penalties a game like they did against the Bengals.

The Giants lead the NFC East despite losing their starting quarterback for the season. Are they a serious contender to win their division?

Howe: The Giants are the only team in the division that should be thrilled with their record, which speaks to the inconsistency in the NFC East, but they’ll level off when the schedule gets harder later into the season. Right now, they’re playing good enough complementary football against bad teams. It’s a good start that appears to be heading in a better direction with coach John Harbaugh, but I’d be surprised if the Giants were a serious factor after Thanksgiving.

Nguyen: No. I didn’t think they were serious contenders with Jaxson Dart. They also lost arguably their best defensive player in Brian Burns as well. Jameis Winston has always been boom or bust. This week he went boom but it was against the Arizona Cardinals. I think when J.J. McCarthy learns the playbook he’ll get a shot to play and they’ll see if they can develop him to be Dart’s backup. For Harbaugh, it’s important to show a downtrodden franchise some proof of concept and we’ve already seen that. Their defense looks solid and the offense has an identity. I just don’t think they have enough, particularly at quarterback, to be considered contenders. The NFC East is down and they beat the Cowboys in Week 1, but that was with Dart and I think the Cowboys will continue to get better as their young defenders get more experience.

Pompei: The general suspicion is the Giants will crash because of their injuries and the modest expectations most had for them coming into the season. But we can’t deny they have been a resourceful team that has found ways to overcome adversities and win games — and who is to say that can’t continue? Credit should go to Harbaugh for instilling more confidence in the Giants than they probably had a right to have before they started winning games people thought they would lose. Some will ding them for the quality of opponents they’ve defeated, but their victory over the Cowboys can’t be dismissed. Their true tests will come in a stretch to end the season when they play the 49ers, Seahawks, Browns, Lions, Cowboys and Eagles.