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Inside: OurAFC South preview, where a previously forgettable division has at least three contenders in the Jaguars, Texans and Colts. Plus: NFL football tonight! Sort of!
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AFC South Preview
The Texans arrived in 2002, forcing the league to rethink everything, including divisions. That led to the creation of the AFC South, which added the Colts (formerly in the AFC East), Jaguars (AFC Central) and Titans (AFC Central).
It hasn’t been a strong group. Among divisions, the AFC South has the lowest winning percentage (.476) and the longest Super Bowl drought (19 years), and it is the only group with multiple teams (Jaguars and Texans) to never make a Super Bowl.
But things are looking up. The Jaguars and Texans were among the AFC’s top teams last year, while the Colts started 8-2 before a rash of injuries led to a late-season collapse. Tennessee has … fresh new jerseys? Cam Ward?
Jacksonville Jaguars
(13-4, lost in wild-card round)
Headline change: Lost veterans. Star linebacker Devin Lloyd signed with the Panthers, running back Travis Etienne is in New Orleans, and corner Greg Newsome joined the Giants. The Jaguars filled those gaps with internal talent, which means players such as running back Bhayshul Tuten are breakout candidates.
Subtle change: Continuity. As the above chart makes clear, every projected starter was on the roster last season. That consistency is invaluable for coach Liam Coen, an elite play caller whose Jaguars started 4-3 and averaged 20.9 points per game until settling in. They then became the NFL’s hottest team, finishing 9-1 and ranking second in points per game (32.8) after Week 8, with wins over the Broncos and Chargers.
Lingering question: What will Travis Hunter offer? The Jaguars need help in the secondary and are expected to play Hunter at cornerback on a full-time basis, with occasional reps at receiver. He is noticeably bigger than last season, which should help the dual-threat stay healthy.
Projection: 10-7. This team will be tested early next season, facing the Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Eagles and Texans before Week 7. But after the Jaguars finished one fourth-down stop away from beating the Bills in the postseason, don’t be surprised to see Jacksonville finish with double-digit wins for the second consecutive season, a first for the franchise in the 2000s.
Houston Texans
(12-5, lost in divisional round)
Headline: C.J. Stroud’s prove-it year. It’s easy to blame surroundings for Stroud’s continued regression, but backup QB Davis Mills was 3-0 as a starter last season with wins against the Jaguars, Bills and Titans. The 25-year-old Stroud has to bounce back from last year’s playoff catastrophe. This defense deserves better.
Subtle: Revamped interior line. The Texans reached on center Keylan Rutledge in this year’s first round, signed three-time Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller and signed eight-year veteran Braden Smith from the Colts to play right tackle. That should help Stroud operate comfortably from the pocket. More importantly, it’ll help their run game.
Question: Can they run the ball? Houston was the league’s second-worst rushing team on first downs (by both yards per carry and expected points added). No one told them? The Texans stubbornly ran the ball on first downs at the league’s fifth-highest rate, which put Stroud behind schedule and in predictable passing situations. The improved line, plus the addition of running back David Montgomery, should help there.
Projection: 9-8. After its Week 6 bye last year, Houston closed the season with a 7-2 record in one-score games, which contributed to an impressive 12-5 record. I’m skeptical the Texans repeat that against one of the league’s toughest schedules (seventh overall). Or maybe I’m just still upset about my 2025 darkhorse Super Bowl pick losing a winnable game in New England? If Stroud takes a step and the run game emerges, this team could also finish atop the AFC. There’s a wide-range here, given how talented the defense is.
Indianapolis Colts
(8-9 in 2025)
Headline: Daniel Jones’ recovery. Achilles injuries are notoriously difficult in the first year of recovery, and Jones relies on his legs pretty often. All reports are positive, with Jones looking sharp while taking every first-team rep in practices. “He looks like he never got hurt,” tight end Mo Alie-Cox said.
Subtle: A healthy defense. While the quarterback’s injury dominated headlines, the Colts’ collapse also coincided with several injuries to defensive stars such as DeForest Buckner, Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner. In Weeks 1-7, a healthy Colts defense ranked fourth in defensive EPA per play. They are Ted Nguyen’s pick for a breakout in 2026.
Question: Can their linebackers deliver? Zaire Franklin had a down year and was traded to Green Bay this offseason, replaced by second-round rookie CJ Allen and former Bengal Akeem Davis-Gaither. This is the team’s biggest weakness.
Projection: 10-7. The schedule lightens after a brutal opening slate of the Ravens, Chiefs and Texans, so don’t fret if the Colts have a losing record by Week 4. This is a strong team: Philip Rivers nearly beat the eventual Super Bowl champion Seahawks with these Colts, though they did finish 2025 with seven straight losses.
Tennessee Titans
(3-14 in 2025)
Headline: Hiring coach Robert Saleh. Like when coach Mike Vrabel arrived in New England, Saleh’s first move in Tennessee was to spend heavily on fortifying the roster. The Titans spent more on free agents than any other NFL team, including three of the top-20 players available.
Subtle: Strong defensive line. The Titans’ pairing of free agent John Franklin-Myers with All-Pro Jeffery Simmons makes them one of four teams with multiple players near the top of Bleacher Report’s defensive linemen rankings. Already among the league’s toughest run defenses (fewest yards before contact allowed), Tennessee should be even better in that regard this season.
Question: Does Cam Ward have enough weapons? Short answer: probably not. Last year was painful for the former No. 1 pick, whose leading receiver was tight end Chig Okonkwo (56 receptions, 560 yards, two TDs). To address that, Tennessee spent the No. 4 pick on receiver Carnell Tate and signed underrated slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. Enough? TBD.
Projection: 5-12. BetMGM set the Titans’ win total at 6.5, but I don’t see enough to be overly confident that Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll orchestrate a Year 1 turnaround like Vrabel’s. Maybe after adding Jeremiah Smith in the 2027 draft?
Extra Points
👀 Hall of Fame Game. It’s the rare time you’ll be glad to watch Kenny Pickett’s Panthers take on Carson Beck’s Cardinals, even if Jeremiyah Love is sitting. The game begins tonight at 8 p.m. ET on NBC. More details here.
🗺 Defensive trends. Ted Nguyen spoke to defensive coaches, who explained why the 2-high safety trend is here to stay. Blame Patrick Mahomes.
🦵Adam Vinatieri might be the most unlikely player to ever make the Hall of Fame. Zak Keefer shares the story of how Vinatieri’s career almost ended after four games.
🏆 Drew Brees is officially a Hall of Famer after the Saints took a chance on the injured free agent, whom Dolphins medical staff didn’t trust. Larry Holder revisits that situation.
📊 Projecting wins. Vic Tafur’s over/under win totals for all 32 teams are worth revisiting as we approach kickoff. Thirty-four days!
▶️ Most-clicked: Everything Jourdan Rodrigue learned about Tucker Kraft and the Packers while visiting Green Bay.
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