NFL picks, predictions for Week 1: Experts split on Patriots-Seahawks, Rams-49ers

The NFL is back, and its desire to expand to a seven-day-a-week product is nearly realized. There are games on four different days in Week 1, including a Super Bowl rematch, the debut of the new Super Team and a fallen dynasty in search of reclamation.

Drama abounds, and our experts have weighed in with their picks on every game. Let’s take a closer look at five that had interesting disagreement (or surprising alignment) then run through the full board.

NFL picks: Week 1

Patriots at Seahawks (Wednesday)

Staff picks: 6-1 Seahawks

If the Patriots want to prove last season wasn’t a product of a single-ply schedule, here’s their chance. An immediate rematch with the team that dogwalked them out of the Super Bowl provides ample opportunity, provided the offensive line shuffle shows dividends. Drake Maye finally has real receivers to throw to now, including arguably the league’s best ball-winner in A.J. Brown for those downfield heaves the third-year quarterback is so fond of.

So why is Josh Kendall the lone picker with faith in the Pats?

The Seahawks already proved that downfield is just a rumor if you can’t hold up in pass protection, and if Will Campbell’s decline wasn’t entirely MCL-related, then get ready for a rinse and repeat of February. The Pats defense is capable but incredibly thin, even with contract negotiations with top cornerback Christian Gonzalez settled. The Seahawks don’t have an NFL-verified running back, but boast +1200 odds to repeat as champs thanks to an all-world defense and a passing attack primed to feast on an underpowered Patriots secondary.

Sam Darnold doubters may be justified, but since 2000, only six defending champs made it back to the Super Bowl — five of those teams had Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes under center, the other was the Seahawks.

Defense plays, and given the (cough) distractions the Pats faced this offseason, it’s hard to bark against the pack and think the Seahawks won’t cover, especially at home.

49ers vs. Rams in Australia (Thursday)

Staff picks: 6-1 Rams

Very few teams have entered a season as a legitimate contender for the best defense and best offense, but the Rams certainly make the list.

They took one of the NFL’s best defensive units and added the best pass rusher on the planet in Myles Garrett — then they brought back Aaron Donald just because they could. Is Donald any good at age 35? Who cares. Twenty percent of Aaron Donald is still 150 percent of a normal man. Byron Young and Kobie Turner remain. Their safeties are outrageous. Their offense has the reigning MVP in Matthew Stafford, and he throws to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Their head coach is maybe the best play caller in the league.

So why did Jon Greenberg pick against them?

Because the only thing less common than having this much promise is actually delivering on it. Super Teams™️ fall apart all the time, and no matter the sport, the runaway preseason favorite rarely starts or finishes as expected.

The 49ers added a true nine-route monster in Mike Evans, and will not (cannot!) possibly be worse on the offensive line than last season. Kyle Shanahan made lemonade out of an attack that demonstrably could not stretch the field last season, so having a vertical threat — and the opportunities that entails — should at least pique some interest in the over, if not a Niners cover. Add in the return of Nick Bosa and other defensive pieces, and San Francisco should warrant significant consideration as a threat to L.A. at a neutral site.

Buccaneers at Bengals (Sunday)

Staff picks: 7-0 Bengals

There was a time last season when the Bucs looked like a top-10 offense, and Baker Mayfield was a legitimate MVP candidate. But 6-2 turned into 8-9 thanks to a never-ending injury carousel, and the same problems persist into 2026. The line is healthy, but Mike Evans is gone, Emeka Egbuka has an injured toe and Jalen McMillan is returning from a broken neck. Chris Godwin is healthy (“he’s in tip-top shape”), but even a cursory glance at his injury history should dump cold water on that idea.

It’s not a shock the Bengals are runaway picks favorites.

But. BUT.

Tampa Bay can be truly devastating at full power, and even half power would be enough to give Cincinnati’s defense trouble. Dexter Lawrence or not, this defense has a lot of the same guys who produced a historically bad DVOA last season, and until there’s proof this unit is demonstrably better, there isn’t enough skepticism going around. The question for Tampa is whether the offense had enough time to coalesce into a threat before they have to keep pace with Joe Cool and The Gang.

And about that gang…

Joe Burrow has probably the best offensive line he’s ever had as a Bengal, but that bar is hilariously low. For proof: did you know that Burrow has never been top-five in Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback? Not even in 2024 when he led the league in yards and touchdowns. Sacks have historically demolished their offense along with Burrow’s long-term health. This line might be better — and Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins average 1.8 EPA per play when they are on the field together — but this is a “believe it when I see it” situation.

Add in that the Bengals routinely start slow, and the Bucs getting 3.5 points seems particularly appealing.

The closest thing to an edge for the Bucs is their revamped defense. Lavonte David is gone, but their front seven is full of absolute units and budding monsters. Vita Vea is paid, A’Shawn Robinson is in town and the tandem of YaYa Diaby and Rueben Bain is enough to put any Bengals fan who has watched their team’s recent pass protection in a state of consternation. If the relatively green Bucs secondary made a leap, the pass rush should be enough to keep a cover in range.

This is a far closer game than Pats-Hawks, and it’s surprising there were no dissenters in the ranks.

Jets at Titans (Sunday)

Staff picks: 5-2 Titans

This one is for the sickos — and where the Cam Ward Hive (there are dozens of us!) can shine. Ward was abysmal on paper and electric on tape, and is finally throwing to someone drafted higher than the fourth round. As the only game with a total below 40, this will be aesthetically unforgivable. You can never tell your friends you bet this game, much less watched it. But sometimes we all need to live without a net, and the Titans team over (20.5) and Ward’s passing props (208.5 yards, 1.5 TDs) are where to go if you want to stress-test your resolve.

Broncos at Chiefs (Monday)

Staff pick split: 5-2 Chiefs

Stop if you’ve heard this before: The Chiefs finally have a running back. It’s eye-roll-inducing at this point, but this time — this time — it might be true.

Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs got 44 explosive runs total from all of their backs combined. Kenneth Walker III had 42 last season. Last year, the Chiefs had one (one!) run of 20-plus yards from a running back (20 bucks if you guessed Kareem Hunt). Walker had 10. Over the last four seasons, he’s fourth in the NFL in runs of 20 or more yards, trailing Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley.

For a team that leaned on Mahomes to do everything, including running the ball, having a field-flipper in the backfield combined with Andy Reid’s play calling is exciting. For that reason, it’s not hard to see why the Chiefs are getting love from the experts.

But the following things are also true:

• Mahomes is coming off an ACL tear
• Their WR corps is made of papier-mâché
• Their best WR missed part of his injury rehab while in jail
• Despite personnel improvement, there’s no proof their defense can run a successful zone blitz

The Broncos, meanwhile, leaned all the way in on their catch-and-run style by trading for yards-after-catch (YAC) master Jaylen Waddle. Bo Nix has many flaws, but tossing a short ball to a fast receiver and letting them do the work is his bailiwick. Waddle is fourth in EPA per target and 13th in YAC over expectation in the last four years. He’s a supernova with legs once he has the ball, and the Broncos are very good at getting the ball to receivers quickly in space.

The Broncos also have a truly oppressive defense, and hit hard enough to turn the Chiefs’ fragile receivers into dust. If this game was in Denver, the spread could be Broncos -5.5 — and it’d likely be a clean sweep for them. But with it being in Kansas City, and the Chiefs in desperate need of reestablishing their aura, seeing the experts lean their way makes sense. Even then, and with Nix having a bum ankle to Mahomes’ bum knee, the Broncos have shown a lot more in the last year to inspire confidence than the Chiefs have.

Full rundown of picks