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Inside: Projecting win totals for all 32 teams, plus reactions to the Browns’ decision and the only quarterback competition left.
(Are you optimistic about your team, or are you a Browns fan? Either way, we want to hear from you in our annual Hope-O-Meter survey.)
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Win totals for all 32
Predictions are hard, especially about the future. That proverb, attributed to everyone from Yogi Berra to a Danish Nobel laureate, springs to mind whenever someone asks me about an upcoming NFL season.
Regardless, The Athletic staffers dished on whether each team’s expectations should be higher or lower than their statistically projected win totals.
In last year’s version of this exercise, eight of our 12 dissenting writers ended up being correct. This year, we happen to have 12 dissenting voices again. Here’s the 2026 list:
Among this year’s nine writers who think a team’s projection is too low, the following three thought last season that it was also too low for the same teams. All three proved prescient.
Based on that, if any teams are likely to beat expectations, it’s these three:
Broncos: Nick Kosmider expected Denver to top last year’s projected 9.2 wins. They won 14. While he doesn’t expect that many Ws again, Nick believes, “There is too much talent on this well-coached roster to see Denver losing eight times.” Agree.
Steelers: “I’d put the over/under at 8.7, rounding up to a nine-win season,” wrote Mike DeFabo, who cited the Steelers’ improved roster and play callers. He correctly had Pittsburgh at 10 wins last season, which paired with a playoff loss for the Mike Tomlin special. Can a new Mike (McCarthy) sustain the 22-year streak of not finishing below .500? (I don’t think so, if Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson stay healthy.)
Texans: “As crazy as it sounds, their already dominant defense should be even better this year, thanks to additions,” wrote Mike Jones, adding that an improved offense could mean a surprise Super Bowl run. Agree here as well. Mike was equally bullish against last year’s 8.8-win projection, and then Houston went 12-5.
The full story covers all 32 teams, with plenty of pessimism for the Falcons, Commanders and Browns. Let’s talk about two of those teams next.
Browns: Reactions after picking Watson
The league’s second-to-last quarterback competition ended yesterday. There is no winner.
Or rather, I can’t consider Deshaun Watson an actual winner, especially after he told a reporter that he doesn’t regret anything in his life, complained about Browns fans and hasn’t played good football in over half a decade.
His backup, the 24-year-old Shedeur Sanders, is likely to gain little development while on the bench. Cleveland’s coaching staff also took a loss, with the decision costing whatever faith fans had left.
💬 Jason Lloyd on Todd Monken’s call: “Monken has voluntarily attached himself to the most unpopular player in Cleveland and one of the most toxic decisions in franchise history — and he announced it 48 hours after a disastrous postgame news conference involving Watson. That comes with consequences.”
But the real losers are the fans. I feel for them. Watching football should be an opportunity to put life on pause. To escape whatever else is happening for a few hours. To cheer for your favorite team.
By naming Watson the starter, the Browns robbed their city of that. Boos for everyone.
Falcons: One battle after the other
The final quarterback competition has unofficially begun in Atlanta, with Michael Penix Jr. returning to full practice yesterday. His rehab schedule had limited him to seven-on-seven work. No longer.
“This is a big step for Mike, and he’s excited about it,” said Kevin Stefanski, the former Cleveland coach who at least no longer has to deal with Watson.
There’s a mental side to Atlanta’s decision. Last year’s ACL tear was Penix’s fifth season-ending injury since the start of the 26-year-old’s college football career. He’s rightfully cautious.
“As far as moving in the pocket, I can do everything. If I had a rush coming at me, I can get away,” he said Thursday. “It’s just, if I don’t get away … I don’t think my doctor is ready for me to take those hits right now, but that time is coming real soon.”
As our Josh Kendall noted, it’s unclear whether Penix will play in Atlanta’s preseason finale on Friday. I’m guessing not. Might he overtake Tua Tagovailoa to claim the Week 1 starting role? The Falcons open against the Steelers in 21 days, so I’d again suggest not.
One thing is clear, however: Penix is only competing against Tagovailoa, not preseason sensation Jack Strand. “At this point, Jack is going to continue to work with the twos and threes, but we’re very excited about his development,” Stefanski said. That’s understandable. It’s also a shame.
Extra Points
👔 New threads. As mentioned, the NFL and Nike introduced the latest batch of “Rivalries” jerseys for teams in the AFC South and NFC North. I rank the Jaguars No. 1.
🎤 Commish speaks. Roger Goodell and team owners will meet tomorrow to approve the Seahawks’ new owners, Vinod and Neeru Khosla. The 67-year-old Goodell’s contract expires in March, one of several topics of discussion.
📦 Patriots-Texans trade! New England shipped receiver Kayshon Boutte for safety Jaylen Reed and a 2028 seventh-round pick. Boutte’s in a contract year and could replace the recently injured Jayden Higgins.
📕 Allen Robinson retires. The one-time Jags Pro Bowler celebrated his 33rd birthday yesterday by starting a new chapter. Once among the league’s highest-paid receivers, he ends his 11-year career at 565 catches, 7,058 yards and 43 TDs. I still can’t believe Blake Bortles once patted Robinson’s freshly injured knee.
▶️ Most-clicked: Preseason Week 2 takeaways from all 32 teams.
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