2026 NFL win total projections for all 32 teams: Experts react to our model

Week 1 for the 2026 NFL season is looming. In just over two weeks, on Sept. 9, a Super Bowl rematch between the champion Seattle Seahawks and runner-up New England Patriots kicks things off.

Does either team have what it takes to return to the big game at Los Angeles’ SoFi Stadium on Feb. 14?

Regular-season team win projections from The Athletic’s Austin Mock say they both have a chance. Mock’s model, which calculates an expected win total for every team, predicts the Seahawks to earn 10.8 wins in 2026 and the Patriots 10.3. Do our NFL beat writers think the projections for those teams are too high, too low or just right?

Read below for analysis of all 32 NFL teams and check out Mock’s full NFC and AFC projections as well.

Arizona Cardinals

Projected wins: 4.4
Verdict: Just right

Here’s the thing: The Cardinals should be more competitive than people expect. This team — with Trey McBride, Jeremiyah Love, Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. — has offensive potential. QB Jacoby Brissett has been solid. First-year coach Mike LaFleur has been impressive. It’s just … everything else. Will the line — which has already lost rookie guard Chase Bisontis with a knee injury — hold up? Can the defense stop anybody? If everything goes right, six wins, even with a difficult schedule, would not be shocking. But that’s probably wishful thinking. — Doug Haller

Atlanta Falcons

Projected wins: 7.1
Verdict: Too high

It’s been a tough summer for the Falcons. One quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., was only cleared for full practice availability this week. The other quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, has not looked great. Last year’s No. 15 pick, edge Jalon Walker, was lost for the season due to an ACL tear. Last year’s No. 26 pick, edge rusher James Pearce Jr., was suspended for the first eight games after violating the personal conduct policy. There are new sheriffs in town — president of football Matt Ryan, general manager Ian Cunningham and head coach Kevin Stefanski — but it’s going to take them a while to clean up these streets. — Josh Kendall

Baltimore Ravens

Projected wins: 10.9
Verdict: Just right

There’s a lot of volatility with the Ravens this year because of the new coaching staff. However, this we do know: Jesse Minter has had a really good defense just about everywhere he’s been and Lamar Jackson has been the league MVP in the first year of his last two offensive coordinators. The Ravens, at least now, are pretty healthy and have a forgiving schedule to start the season. A number of factors point to a Baltimore bounce-back. — Jeff Zrebiec

Buffalo Bills

Projected wins: 10.7
Verdict: Just right

There is one simple and undeniable fact in Buffalo: As long as quarterback Josh Allen is healthy enough to play for the entire season — which he has every year since 2019 — it’s hard to envision the wheels totally falling off. The difference this year is there are a lot more variables. By firing Sean McDermott and promoting Joe Brady to head coach, the Bills believe they have raised their ceiling. But with a rookie head coach figuring it out on the fly, the floor may be much lower. They have a brand-new defensive scheme and a first-time NFL defensive coordinator in Jim Leonhard, another variable. That’s why 10.7 wins feels on the nose, as you could easily make the argument for slightly higher or lower. — Joe Buscaglia

Carolina Panthers

Projected wins: 6.7
Verdict: Too low

I picked the Panthers to go 9-8 when schedules were released in May. But since then they’ve lost outside linebacker Nic Scourton for the season and right tackle Taylor Moton for a chunk of it, meaning the Panthers will enter Week 1 with new starters at both tackle spots, including rookie Monroe Freeling. That said, the defense will be better with the additions of Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd and the Panthers play in the NFC South. So while 6.7 might be a tad low, there’s a real chance an eight-win team claims the division again. — Joseph Person

Chicago Bears

Projected wins: 9.6
Verdict: Just right

Injuries in camp may have tempered fans from making Super Bowl plans, with safety Coby Bryant out four to six months and the Bears still lacking clarity on nickel corner Kyler Gordon. They are probably another playoff appearance away from being in the upper echelon of Super Bowl contenders. The Ben Johnson-Caleb Williams duo with this offensive line and skill players has raised the floor in Chicago. Winning fewer than eight games seems unlikely. The defensive questions — from health to pass rush — lower the ceiling, though. — Kevin Fishbain

Cincinnati Bengals

Projected wins: 10.3
Verdict: Too low

The Bengals are currently favored in 15 of 17 games. In the last 16 games Joe Burrow started as a favorite, the Bengals are 13-3. Their defense looks dramatically more reliable with quality veterans now plastered across the roster. The hedge here is on Burrow’s health and that’s always a notable variable. They also paid $6 million to Joe Flacco to mitigate it. It’s hard to imagine a full season of Burrow complemented by a steady defense falling below 11 wins. — Paul Dehner Jr.

Cleveland Browns

Projected wins: 5.3
Verdict: Too high

For the Browns, 2026 is all about continuing to develop and evaluate a talented young corps. The quarterback play will almost certainly be dreadful, and the brand-new offensive line will need time to catch up. There’s little proven depth at any spot and six of the first nine games are on the road. The defense is still strong, but the focus is rightly on the future and the real goal should be a top-three draft pick. — Zac Jackson

Dallas Cowboys

Projected wins: 9.2
Verdict: Just right

If Dallas stays healthy, this should be a 10-win team competing for an NFC East title with the Philadelphia Eagles. The offense is loaded and the defense is showing signs that it could be significantly better in Christian Parker’s first season as defensive coordinator. But the offense would take a notable step back if franchise QB Dak Prescott or leading rusher Javonte Williams suffered a significant injury. That group probably has to be elite for Dallas to top the nine-win mark. — Jon Machota

Denver Broncos

Projected wins: 9.1
Verdict: Too low

The Broncos aren’t going 11-2 in one-score games like they did last season. History says regression in close games is coming, making it hard to envision them winning 14 games again. But the Broncos may be even deeper defensively than the units that led the NFL in sacks in each of the past two seasons. Offensively, they added Jaylen Waddle to bring a new element to the passing game, and new play-caller Davis Webb should help Bo Nix take a step forward in Year 3. There is too much talent on this well-coached roster to see Denver losing eight times this season. — Nick Kosmider

Detroit Lions

Projected wins: 10.2
Verdict: Just right

The Lions should greatly benefit from a schedule that ranks as the fourth easiest in the league, per Mock’s model. While there are major questions in the secondary and the offense will be without starting center Cade Mays until October, the Lions believe they’re better equipped to handle unexpected challenges this year. They have a new offensive coordinator in Drew Petzing, a younger and more athletic offensive line, a deeper defensive line rotation and return one of the league’s most talented rosters. Detroit’s projected win total of 10.2 wins is tied for the fourth-most in the NFC and leads the NFC North. Some things need to come together, and this division is one of the most competitive in football, but it’s certainly on the table for this group. — Colton Pouncy

Green Bay Packers

Projected wins: 9.7
Verdict: Just right

Until the Packers’ group of unproven edge rushers proves me wrong, I don’t think it’ll be able to adequately withstand the absence of Micah Parsons — however long that may be. Can Jordan Love will this team to a couple shootout wins? Sure, but there are also several questions along the offensive line that could prevent the Packers from getting over the No. 7 seed hump. Sustained health for tight end Tucker Kraft, right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele and Parsons later in the season will be paramount. — Matt Schneidman

Houston Texans

Projected wins: 9.8
Verdict: Too low

The way C.J. Stroud wilted in the playoffs last winter leaves a bad taste, but the Texans remain in good shape and could match last year’s 12-5 record. As crazy as it sounds, their already dominant defense should be even better this year thanks to additions in free agency and the draft. An overhaul of the offensive line, key additions at running back (David Montgomery) and tight end (Foster Moreau and Marlin Klein) check off key needs. The table is set. Houston just needs Stroud to take care of the football and facilitate. If Year 2 in Nick Caley’s system can produce the necessary growth, Stroud and the Texans should again contend for the AFC South title and have a shot at a deep playoff run. — Mike Jones

Indianapolis Colts

Projected wins: 8.2
Verdict: Just right

Part of me wants to stamp the Colts as a 10-win team, especially after they started 8-2 last year with a healthy Daniel Jones. But the other part of me knows Jones — who looks great amid his right Achilles rehab — has a lengthy injury history. He hasn’t played a full season since 2022, which makes me hesitant to bank on him in 2026. But even beyond Jones, the Colts’ revamped defense doesn’t have enough juice at pass rusher for me to think they can climb out of the cycle of mediocrity they’ve been in amid a five-year playoff drought. — James Boyd

Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected wins: 9.0
Verdict: Too low

The Jaguars have a brutal schedule and lost Devin Lloyd and Travis Etienne in free agency, so the projected regression is understandable. But the energy in Jacksonville is incredible this summer, and it’s more than reasonable to expect Trevor Lawrence and the offense to make another jump. Remember, the Jags won 13 games last season without scratching the surface with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter — their last two first-round picks — so the Jags can get a lot more explosive with that pair. — Jeff Howe

Kansas City Chiefs

Projected wins: 9.6
Verdict: Just right

I’ve had the Chiefs somewhere around 11 wins for a while, but their razor-thin depth at offensive line and wide receiver also lowers the potential floor here. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes should be back in Week 1 from his December knee surgery, though, and Kansas City won’t go 1-9 again in one-score games as it did in 2025. The Chiefs competing for an AFC West title somewhere around 10-7 seems like a reasonable expectation to me. — Jesse Newell

Las Vegas Raiders

Projected wins: 6.2
Verdict: Just right

The Raiders will be better this year, because how could they not be? But that doesn’t mean they’ll make a huge leap in wins after going 3-14 last season. Playing in the AFC West is hard enough already, and Las Vegas also drew the NFC West and AFC East as cross-division matchups this year. It has nine games against playoff teams from last year as a result. Beating the other last-place AFC teams from last year seems reasonable, as do wins against some other lesser opponents. But exceeding six wins will be a difficult feat. — Sam Warren

Los Angeles Chargers

Projected wins: 9.4
Verdict: Too low

Jim Harbaugh has won 11 games in each of his first two seasons as Chargers coach. That included 2025, when he lost both starting tackles and was forced to play almost 30 different offensive line combinations because of injuries. Harbaugh has set a pretty clear floor in Los Angeles. The offense will be markedly improved with new coordinator Mike McDaniel calling plays. Even with a very tough schedule, I think the Chargers will get to double-digit wins. Harbaugh has earned that benefit of the doubt. — Daniel Popper

Los Angeles Rams

Projected wins: 11.6
Verdict: Just right

The Rams have been Super Bowl favorites nearly everywhere since the blockbuster trade to acquire Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett followed up another blockbuster to land All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie. It makes sense, then, that they’d have the top projected wins number in a model like this. The team does have risk in its depth at quarterback, offensive line and wide receiver, and it has to show improvement on special teams. The NFC West is also a gauntlet. But this team won 12 games a year ago and then added McDuffie, Garrett and cornerback Jaylen Watson while bringing back every other starter. This seems like the right target. — Nate Atkins

Miami Dolphins

Projected wins: 4.5
Verdict: Too low

I can absolutely see a world in which the Dolphins win three games and “earn” the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. No team in history has ever been more burdened by dead cap, so winning more than four games with those constraints should feel like a coup for new coach Jeff Hafley. But I think it’s doable. The offensive line might kick … butt, and Hafley is a good enough defensive mind to coax a better than expected year out of the defense. If quarterback Malik Willis plays as well as he did last year in Green Bay, sure, put the Dolphins down for a five-win season. — Jim Ayello

Minnesota Vikings

Projected wins: 8.7
Verdict: Just right

You can make reasonable arguments on both sides of this one. On the positive end, the Vikings present upside. Quarterback Kyler Murray’s floor should far exceed the play from 2025, and his dual-threat ability could further unlock advantages. Additionally, the Vikings revamped their run game with the hiring of assistant head coach Frank Smith (and promotion of offensive line coach Keith Carter). Increase the offensive output, and Minnesota could vie for the NFC North. A negative view is valid, too. The Vikings’ defense is banking heavily on defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the scheme’s ability to create chaos and a bevy of young players at all spots. Take a step back defensively — and suffer injuries on the offensive line or at quarterback — and the Vikings could find themselves in a rough spot. — Alec Lewis

New England Patriots

Projected wins: 10.3
Verdict: Just right

Plenty of betting markets list 9.5 as the Patriots’ win total, a number that has seemed too low all offseason. The offense was already one of the best in the league and, at least on paper, got significantly better with the additions of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. With a tougher schedule, the Patriots probably won’t match last season’s 14 wins. But I’ve waffled between predicting 10 or 11 wins this season. — Chad Graff

New Orleans Saints

Projected wins: 7.8
Verdict: Just right

Could I see the Saints surprising some folks and pulling off 10 wins? Sure! But does 8-9 or 9-8 feel more like it? Probably. New Orleans could be staring at 0-2 after opening the season with road games at Detroit and Baltimore. Stealing a win against either team could go a long way in the Saints surpassing the eight-win mark — and in the NFC South, eight victories might win the division (and it will if these projections stand firm). — Larry Holder

New York Giants

Projected wins: 7.1
Verdict: Just right

This may seem like a disappointment in John Harbaugh’s first season, but there needs to be an understanding of the situation the Super Bowl champion coach inherited. The Giants have won seven games combined over the past two seasons. Second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart’s play is the variable that could swing the win total dramatically in either direction. But with some growing pains expected and a defense that features questions around a potentially dominant pass rush, seven wins feels right. — Dan Duggan

New York Jets

Projected wins: 5.6
Verdict: Just right

It’s hard to argue with this projection. The Jets won three games last season and arguably opened the season with more talent (on paper, at least) on defense. By midseason, they had traded away two of their best players and had one of the worst defensive seasons in team history. They worked to raise the floor of the defense by adding veterans Demario Davis, Minkah Fitzpatrick, David Onyemata and talented young players like T’Vondre Sweat and rookie David Bailey. But the ceiling still isn’t especially high and they’ll be riding the Geno Smith roller coaster on offense. Five-to-seven wins sounds like the right range. — Zack Rosenblatt

Philadelphia Eagles

Projected wins: 10.4
Verdict: Just right

The Eagles won at least 11 games in each of the past four seasons. Their defense should be one of the best in the NFL, raising Philadelphia’s floor and making another double-digit win season a strong possibility. The ceiling will be determined by the offense, which is undergoing the most dramatic scheme change in the six seasons of the Nick Sirianni-Jalen Hurts partnership. If the offense adjusts quickly and the running game is reinvigorated with a healthy offensive line and Saquon Barkley in the new system, this will hit the over — and perhaps even easily. If the Eagles experience growing pains and the passing game cannot evolve while the A.J. Brown trade leaves a void, then pushing beyond this total could be more challenging than in previous seasons. — Zach Berman

Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected wins: 8.4
Verdict: Too low

It feels like every year at this time, oddsmakers are predicting the Steelers’ first losing season since 2003 — and every year, they find a way to get to nine or 10 wins. The roster is improved and so too should be the play callers (defensive coordinator Patrick Graham and head coach Mike McCarthy). But the schedule is also tougher and the Steelers can’t count on both MVP-candidate QBs in their division being injured again. Ultimately, three factors will determine how McCarthy’s first season unfolds: How close to dominant can the young offensive line be after years of early-round investment? Can Graham get the NFL’s highest-paid defense to play up to its collective cap hit? And more than anything, can Aaron Rodgers deliver vintage moments at clutch times? I’d put the over/under at 8.7, rounding up to a nine-win season. — Mike DeFabo

San Francisco 49ers

Projected wins: 10.2
Verdict: Just right

The 49ers made a couple of nice pickups this offseason in Mike Evans and Osa Odighizuwa, and De’Zhaun Stribling and the rookie class have been showing out at training camp and in the preseason games. And while we liked the initial over-under of 9.5 wins, we can’t get too much higher than 10 because injuries just won’t stop. The 49ers were ravaged by injuries last season, and this camp has been no different. Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams still haven’t practiced and running backs have had a revolving door to the trainer’s room, while the loss of receiver Ricky Pearsall was cushioned by the availability of old friend Deebo Samuel. The pass rush is still a big question, while on the other side of the trenches, left guard is a four-man battle of not very exciting options. That’s not ideal when you face the Seahawks and Rams twice each. — Vic Tafur

Seattle Seahawks

Projected wins: 10.8
Verdict: Just right

The Seahawks won 14 games last season, capped it off with a Super Bowl victory and are returning a large portion of their roster. Assuming good health, they should be a contender again but 10.8 wins — third-highest in the NFL — feels like it’s just right, teetering on being too high. Will Sam Darnold’s revival continue now that the league has a year of tape on him in Seattle? How will the offense adjust without Klint Kubiak and Kenneth Walker III? The schedule does no favors, either. The Seahawks play in a tough NFC West, with four games against the Rams and 49ers. They also play a first-place schedule, which includes both teams (Patriots and Broncos) that made the AFC Championship Game last season, plus the Eagles and the Bears, among other tough opponents. — Saad Yousuf

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected wins: 8.0
Verdict: Too low

The Bucs are capable of winning more games than they did one year ago, when they were 8-9 in a season when everything that could have gone wrong did. The Bucs won 10 games two years ago and are capable of a similar win total in 2026, especially considering the mediocre state of the NFC South. For them to exceed eight wins, they will need impact from rookie edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., effective game planning and play calling from new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, and better health. Having a motivated and slightly perturbed Baker Mayfield won’t hurt. — Dan Pompei

Tennessee Titans

Projected wins: 5.8
Verdict: Just right

If the Titans can round that up to six wins, they’ll match their combined total for the 2024 and 2025 seasons. So yes, they can be pretty bad this season and still demonstrate progress. That’s how rough it has been, and how certain a fifth straight losing season for the franchise appears to be. If Robert Saleh can bring a certain level of stability, and defense, and the Titans can get in the six- to seven-win range and see clear growth from 2025 No. 1 pick Cam Ward, it would be the best Titans season since Mike Vrabel and A.J. Brown were doing their thing together in Nashville. If it’s another fall of vying for the No. 1 draft pick, and Ward doesn’t take a significant step forward, that’s certainly not how owner Amy Adams Strunk wants to open her new stadium in 2027. — Joe Rexrode

Washington Commanders

Projected wins: 7.6
Verdict: Too high

It’s amazing how one or two people can influence a season. Before losing Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil, I would’ve pegged the Commanders as a potential nine- or 10-win team. They bolstered their receiving corps with the addition of Stefon Diggs, invested heavily in their defensive line and changed their systems to create more balance on offense and become more multiple on defense. But this team will go where quarterback Jayden Daniels goes, and Daniels may not be able to go far behind this line. There is no plug-and-play replacement for one of the game’s best pass-blocking tackles. Combined with the injury concerns of center Nick Allegretti, the up-and-down play of left guard Chris Paul and the line’s general lack of depth, Daniels could be running from pressure more than he’s running the Commanders’ new offense. — Nicki Jhabvala