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As fantasy football draft season inches closer and closer, it’s time for our annual predictions of sleepers, busts and breakout players. Interpretations of the terms can vary for each, but here are the definitions for our purposes:
• Sleeper: A player who is being overlooked and will outperform his average draft position (ADP) in 2026.
• Bust: A highly regarded player who will underperform in 2026, relative to his ADP/ranking.
• Breakout: A player who will put up career-best numbers in 2026 and make a huge impact.
Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Daniel Dopp, Tyler Fulghum, Eric Karabell, Liz Loza, Eric Moody and Field Yates each contributed a sleeper and a bust for the major offensive positions, as well as one breakout candidate. You can find their picks below, as well as their analysis and insights on a selection of players they felt most passionate about in each category.
Editor’s note: This story will be updated throughout the preseason.
Jump to: Sleepers | Busts | Breakouts
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Sleepers
Bell: Tyler Shough gave us a hint of things to come when he closed out his rookie season with six straight games of 17 or more fantasy points. He now adds a year of experience plus two new weapons to boost offensive production: Rookie WR Jordyn Tyson to complement veteran fantasy star (yet oft-injured) Chris Olave and a capable pass-catching running back in Travis Etienne Jr.. And, like all fantasy-desirable quarterbacks, Shough adds value with his legs. Among all quarterbacks with at least 10 carries in 2025, Shough ranked second in percentage of carries (22.2%) from inside the 10-yard line, hinting at increased scoring opportunity.
Bowen: C.J. Stroud needs a running game — and much more favorable third-down situations — to play at a level comparable to his rookie season of 2023 (18.4 fantasy PPG). Houston upgraded the offensive line this offseason and traded for running back David Montgomery, critical pieces to creating more offensive tempo and rhythm with Stroud, who has the targets on the perimeter, led by Nico Collins, to throw with accuracy and produce explosive plays in the pass game. Stroud should be targeted in 2QB Superflex formats, and I expect him to post some QB1 weeks this season.
Dopp: Kenyon Sadiq. He’s a rookie. On a bad organization. In a low-scoring offense. That doesn’t have an elite QB. Oh, sorry, I was talking about what we said about Brock Bowers when he was coming into the league. We’ve seen premier rookie tight ends translate much faster to the fantasy game than our grandpappies did at our age. Saddiq is next in line and will see more of a hybrid WR/TE role. I love his low-cost, late-round value.
Loza: Suffering two ACL tears in the same knee within a span of 13 months certainly is reason for pause. Still, with a current of ADP 125.4, there’s no denying Jonathon Brooks‘ sleeper appeal. Cleared for offseason team activities, the former Texas Longhorns standout is being eased into OTAs while receiving praise from Dave Canales about his return to health and explosive three-down skill set. After letting Rico Dowdle walk and ignoring the position during the NFL draft, Carolina appears confident in the 23-year-old’s recovery. The first running back selected in 2024 (46th overall), Brooks is on the precipice of authoring a bust-to-boom comeback story for himself — and fantasy managers.
Moody: Kenny Gainwell‘s role could be larger than expected in Tampa Bay. From Week 8 on last season, Gainwell, then a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers, averaged 13.3 touches and 17.8 fantasy points per game. He was also a capable receiver out of the backfield, ranking near the top of the position in yards per route run during that stretch. Rachaad White is gone, and Bucky Irving is projected for 61% of the touches for the Buccaneers, leaving Gainwell with standalone appeal and RB2 upside if his role grows.
Yates: I expect significant growth from QB Cam Ward in his second season functioning in an offense that will be improved. What the Titans lacked last year was a go-to target in the passing game (Elic Ayomanor led the team with a mere 89 targets in 2025), and Carnell Tate provides them with that (Wan’Dale Robinson will vacuum up a hefty share of targets too). Tate was the most pro-ready prospect in the 2026 NFL draft with his pristine route running and strong hands. I’m bullish.
Busts
Clay: Mike Evans is a future Hall of Famer, but he’ll be hard-pressed to deliver a strong bounce-back campaign entering his age-33 season and first with the 49ers. Evans missed nine games due to injury last season and, even when active, his numbers were down (career low 12.1 PPG and one top-20 outing in seven full games). Over the past decade, Larry Fitzgerald and Julian Edelman are the only 33-plus-year-old wideouts to deliver top-25 fantasy campaigns, and they primarily worked in the slot and/or short range. Evans has generally made his hay as a downfield, red-zone playmaker. He’ll benefit from Kyle Shanahan’s efficient offense, but Evans panning out as your WR2/3 is going to require some serious touchdown fortune.
Cockcroft: Nothing against Harold Fannin Jr. as a player — I see an excellent career ahead for him — but I typically go against the crowd at tight end. Fannin had just about the best numbers anyone could’ve possibly expected from him in Cleveland last year, and the departure of David Njoku will surely heighten his draft-day price. Defenses will be more prepared for him this season, the Browns’ quarterback situation remains a mess, and it’s worth pointing out that Fannin has put in suspiciously little practice time throughout the offseason process. It’s difficult to envision him exceeding his 2025 fantasy points total, but his ADP says that people think he will.
Dopp: Christian McCaffrey proved doubters wrong last year, reclaiming his position as a top-three fantasy running back. But this year is not last year. This year, McCaffrey is coming off a 450-touch season across the regular season and playoffs. Just like I did following Saquon Barkley’s massive workload the year before, I’m fading the player with that kind of touch count in the previous season.
Fulghum: I hate to say it as a staunch Rams fan, but Matthew Stafford is screaming regression for 2026. His 2025 MVP campaign was magical. At age 38, Stafford started all 17 games, led the league in passing yards (4,707) and set career highs in passing TDs (46) and TD% (7.7). It is extraordinarily likely that most, if not all, of those numbers take a dip in 2026. Even if he plays all 17 games again — which at his age is also going to be hard to do — it’s going to be tough to match what he did in 2025. He also adds next to nothing with his legs. This year we’re drafting Stafford as QB9, when in 2025 his price tag was QB20! I hate to admit this, but Stafford is likely going to disappoint fantasy managers who invest in him this season.
Karabell: Malik Nabers is a terrific player, obviously, but the concern here is the right knee he tore in Week 4 of last season and the follow-up procedure from the spring. The Giants must be cautious with this young talent, and they appeared to plan ahead for the inevitability of Nabers starting this season late with their offseason acquisitions. Could Nabers overcome this and dominate for four-plus months like he did during his rookie season? He could, but there are far safer receiver options in the first two rounds. Invest in healthier players.
Moody: Josh Jacobs carries risk, as the warning signs are starting to stack up. He’s 28 years old with 2,109 career touches, and there is also some uncertainty hanging over him as he deals with several off-field legal issues. On the field, his efficiency slipped last season, with his yards per carry dropping to 4.0. Jacobs also faded following a left knee injury and knee contusion last season, going from 21.1 touches and 19.6 fantasy points per game in his first nine games to 14.6 touches and 11.3 FPPG over his final five.
Breakouts
Bell: Omarion Hampton‘s strong-dual threat performance early in his rookie season (RB3 in Week 3 with 24.9 FP) had fantasy managers asking, “What if?” at season’s end. What if he hadn’t fractured his ankle and missed seven games? What if he had a full slate of games behind a healthy offensive line? Answers to those questions, along with “What can he do in a Mike McDaniel-led offense?” should be answered in 2026. Hampton’s power and efficiency will enhance his production in this revamped Chargers offense, and if all relevant parties stay healthy, he could deliver on the RB1 promise he teased last year.
Bowen: With Mike Evans now in San Francisco, the door is open for Emeka Egbuka to emerge as the top target in Tampa Bay’s offense. A detailed route runner who can create his own separation at all three levels of the field, Egbuka had four games of 20 or more fantasy points as a rookie, finishing with 68 receptions for 938 yards and six touchdowns. With the aggressive throwing mentality of Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, don’t be surprised if Egbuka finishes as a top-10 wide receiver in 2026.
Clay: Jeremiyah Love was selected third overall in April’s draft, and recent history suggests that is a data point we can’t ignore. Each of the past nine running backs drafted in the top 12 went on to finish top 12 in fantasy points at the position as a rookie. The nine backs averaged 289.1 touches, 1,456 scrimmage yards, 9.0 TDs and 17.3 fantasy PPG (that would have ranked seventh among RBs in 2025). Love has elite speed, a three-down skill set and was extremely efficient at Notre Dame. Expect a big workload and huge fantasy production right out of the gate.
Cockcroft: Travis Etienne Jr.’s departure from Jacksonville might have been met with some raised eyebrows, but I agree with the Jaguars on Bhayshul Tuten‘s upside and ability to deliver similar production in a starting role. As a rookie, Tuten turned seven of his 93 total touches into touchdowns and had the second-best missed tackles forced rate among running backs (31%), all that on the heels of standout 2024 at Virginia Tech as well as a combine in which he displayed his elite speed. Tuten’s path to breaking through as a high-end fantasy RB2 is entirely clear.
Fulghum: Luther Burden III‘s second season in Chicago sets up nicely for him to break out in a BIG way. Ben Johnson calling plays. Caleb Williams at the trigger. DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus out the door, leaving 150 vacated targets from last year. Rome Odunze’s altered bone structure in his foot being his “new normal.” All these factors form a tantalizing opportunity for Burden to bust out. He already showed on tape as a rookie that he is elite with the ball in his hands. His underlying efficiency metrics (albeit on a small sample), rank among some of the best all-time as a rookie. Had he reached qualifying thresholds, he would have ranked third among all WRs in yard per route run (2.92), behind only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Other rookies to post a YPRR north of 2.5 in the last decade include Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. That is the bull ceiling case for Burden: a top-5 player at his position currently going as WR28 in ESPN drafts.
Karabell: The Seattle Seahawks moved on from Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III and drafted Jadarian Price, who didn’t produce snazzy college numbers because he was Notre Dame’s backup to the highly touted Jeremiyah Love, now with the Arizona Cardinals. Price did average 6.0 yards per carry and scored 13 touchdowns from scrimmage despite limited volume last season. Now, look at the Seahawks versus the Cardinals. Which situation is better? One can make the case that Price, with the Super Bowl champions and with less competition for backfield touches, is in a better situation. Love should be great, but he doesn’t appear to be a bargain in ESPN ADP. Price is a terrific bargain, going five rounds later.
Loza: Drafted 34th overall in 2025, Jayden Higgins entered the NFL as an exciting prospect with an enticing athletic profile (9.63 RAS score). Touted as an ace ball-tracker with an expansive catch radius, the Iowa State product ended his rookie campaign third on the team in targets behind Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. While his opportunities were far from voluminous (68), it’s worth noting that he finished with the same number of touchdowns as Collins (6). Higgins also stepped up when the aforementioned vet was sidelined, recording either 10 looks or scoring in Weeks 8, 18 and the divisional round of the playoffs. Given Christian Kirk’s departure, Tank Dell’s rehab process and Collins’ history of lower-body issues, Higgins figures to be more heavily featured in 2026.
Yates: One can make the case that this is grabbing the low-hanging fruit, as Ashton Jeanty was a first-round pick in fantasy drafts last year and had a solid but unspectacular season. But the best moments from Jeanty — his 31.8-point outing vs. the Texans in Week 16 comes to mind — were a testament to his natural ability. The Raiders’ offensive personnel, system and coaching should be dramatically improved this season, and Jeanty will benefit. Among players with at least 70 carries last season, Jeanty averaged 1.26 yards before contact per carry, dead last among those 80 players. It’s a way better infrastructure for him all around.
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