NFL projected scores Week 1: Model predicts point spreads and totals for every game

The NFL is back and doing so with a Wednesday start. My NFL Projection Model is tuned up and ready to go for the new season.

All of my projections are back with the 2026 NFL Simulator. It can show you how likely your team is to make the playoffs, the likelihood of your team’s chances of winning each game on its schedule as well as its view on the odds of each team to make the playoffs, win its division or the Super Bowl.

Let’s narrow the focus to Week 1, though. Here, my model will give projected spreads and point totals for all 16 NFL games this week, starting with Wednesday’s season opener between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.

For context, I have developed an NFL Projection Model that takes in play-by-play data to create projections for each team in the league. These projections are adjusted for opponent and garbage time before spitting out an expected points-per-game for the offense and defense. From there, I’m able to plug these values into the model and get an expected spread and total for each game of the NFL season.

Below are my projections for every game, compared to FanDuel’s betting lines. The biggest difference is that the Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 5.5 points in my model against the Atlanta Falcons as opposed to 3.5 points in the betting spread.