USC news: Pete Thamel lays out harsh reality for Lincoln Riley’s hot seat

The USC football team has big expectations for the 2026 season. It is clearly a pivotal year for head coach Lincoln Riley, who has yet to meet expectations at the school. ESPN reporter Pete Thamel is making a powerful statement about Riley and his team this coming season.

“They could make the Playoff or Lincoln Riley could get fired, and I don’t see a whole lot in the middle there,” Thamel said on the College GameDay Podcast, as reported by On3 Sports. “I’m not saying the Playoff or bust, but I do think those are the two most likely options here.”

It hasn’t been easy for Riley, or USC, in recent years. The Trojans decided to leave the Pac-12 conference and head to the Big Ten. With that move, the USC football team started having to travel thousands of miles just to get to road games.

USC has also picked up more losses than expected in Big Ten play.

“They have not made the CFP in any iteration, which is a long time coming for a place with that much tradition and, quite frankly, that much resources,” Thamel said.

While the Trojans will have plenty of experience on the 2026 roster, Thamel says that doesn’t guarantee success.

“The metric that used to be one of the most reliable barometers for success in the portal era has suddenly become a little bit uncertain,” Thamel said. “That is just not a given. You say, ‘Oh, they got 17 starters back … they’re going to be good.’ It’s just not the case anymore.”

USC also now has one of their biggest rivals off of their schedule. The school couldn’t come to an agreement with Notre Dame to continue their series with the Fighting Irish. It is a tough development, as that rivalry is one of the most heated in college football.

The Trojans kick off their 2026 season against San Jose State on Aug. 29.