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The weather is heating up, and the baseball season is in full swing. As we enter June, it’s time to take a good look at the standings. There’s still plenty of baseball left, but trends that began in April have solidified further in May. Just a little more than one-third of the way into the season, it’s time to start thinking about whether our current division leaders are for real.
Let’s take a look at those leaders and what the postseason field could look like. Note: All stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for impact and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first place
The 1996 season was the first full campaign with at least one Wild Card in each league after the ’95 campaign was limited to 144 games. Since then, 103 of 174 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering June 1. That’s 59 percent of division winners.
Pay special attention, Rays, Guardians, Mariners, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers fans — those teams are our current division leaders heading into June.
Last season, three of the six division winners had at least a share of that lead on June 1. In the American League, the Mariners won their division, while the Yankees and Tigers, who led entering June, made it as Wild Cards. In the National League, the Phillies, with a share of the lead, and the Dodgers each led entering June and went on to win their division. The Cubs led the Central entering June but made the playoffs as a Wild Card.
If you were wondering, there’s been just one season in this span when all six division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering June 1: 1998.
Since 1996, 17 of the 29 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their division entering June. The Dodgers did so last year and in ‘24.
Those defending champion Dodgers are in first place entering June. That’s rarer than you might think. Of the 29 teams to win the World Series since 1996 and play in May the next year, just eight have found themselves in first place through May that subsequent year, including these Dodgers.
This year’s leaders overall
Each of the current division leaders has held at least a share of the lead entering June at least one other time since the start of 2023.
The Guardians, Mariners, Brewers and Dodgers won their division last year. The Braves last did so in 2023, and the Rays in 2021.
Even two-plus months in, there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played. But fans of the six division leaders can take some comfort in knowing that historically, more than half of those teams have won their division. And while 59% of teams with a share of the division lead entering June win that division, plenty do not. Only time will tell. That’s why they play the game — and, luckily for us, we get to follow along.
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